UK churches: decline and extinction?

UK churches are declining and most denominations even face extinction, a Christian mathematician has warned – with the Church of England lasting until the second half of the century.

Dr John Hayward, a mathematician at the University of South Wales, uses church growth models to research the growth and decline of the Christian church. He found that though Christianity has been declining in the UK for more than 60 years – a few groupings are growing, including the Fellowship of Independent Evangelical Churches, Newfrontiers, and the Elim Pentecostal Church.

‘The main factor in church decline is the lack of conversions,’ he commented in his report. ‘These churches then get older, and their losses get worse due to higher death rates.’ Conversion rates are at their worst in Welsh and Scottish churches where, warns Dr Hayward, ‘the immediate future looks bleak’.