Sir Keir Starmer is finished. It may not happen immediately. It may even drag on over the summer. But the prospect of him finishing this new parliamentary session as leader and prime minister is null and void. The question is not if Starmer will go, it is when and how and who will replace him.
If the leadership transition takes place in 2026, Starmer’s replacement will be the UK’s seventh prime minister in just ten years. By contrast, the previous decade saw four prime ministers, and the ten years before that, just two. Prime ministerial tenures are clearly becoming shorter and shorter!
The instability in Downing Street over the past decade is but one feature of an increasingly fractious and polarised politics. This political chaos comes at a significant price. It means big legislative action is lacking. Key debates about social care, the future of the NHS, defence spending, and immigration are ignored or deemed too toxic to make any meaningful progress. Meanwhile, we live financially as a nation beyond our means, borrowing more money and storing up problems for future generations.
Our next PM? Burnham, Streeting & faith
Editor's note, added 19 June 2026: Andy Burnham has won the by-election in Makerfield. Earlier this week, we published …