Something’s in the air – and it may not be good news

There is an unmistakable atmosphere around Westminster at the moment.

When you talk to MPs, those who are standing again are increasingly fixated on the looming General Election campaign. The boundary changes have benefitted some and are the source of anguish for others. But what is clear is that minds are accelerating away from focusing on legislation, to planning and scheming about how to hold onto their seats.

Before we criticise this, I’d suggest the government is in a similar position. In November’s King’s Speech, there were only 21 Bills presented, six of which were carried over from the previous parliamentary session. By contrast, the last Queen’s Speech in 2022 had 29 Bills and the one before that had 30 Bills.

Even if the next election is in January 2025 (highly unlikely in my view!), there is now a limited amount of parliamentary time left. The House will rise on 19 December and not return until 8 January 2024. If 2024 follows the same pattern as 2023, then there will be further breaks in February, over Easter, a long summer break, and then a conference season break as well.

What does this mean? It means the government will need to be smart about what legislation it prioritises and it will need to cut deals with MPs who table amendments. You see, here is how it works. Take the Criminal Justice Bill, as an example. It is a flagship government Bill, and it has already had its Second Reading in the Commons. The scope of the Bill determines what amendments might be accepted. Because the scope of this Bill is very broad, there is a higher chance that amendments on a wide variety of topics will be deemed permissible.

In fact, two extreme abortion amendments have already been tabled. Both would effectively remove the last remaining legal safeguards for abortion across the UK. If that were to happen, our already extremely high abortion numbers would likely increase even further. The last figures we have show between January and June 2022, there were 123,219 abortions in England and Wales. This compares with 105,488 over the same period in 2021. If abortion is ‘decriminalised’, it’s fair to assume that increases will become even larger.

My concern is that because of the time pressure, the government may move towards a speedy compromise with MPs behind the abortion amendments; to save the overall Bill and ensure it is passed ahead of the election. The temptation among ministers will be to cut a deal, irrespective of the actual merits of the proposed change in the law.

In fact, this whole approach to making laws seems designed to ensure shoddy work. It’s a simple fact that when time is short and we are under pressure, we rarely do our best work. Moreover, if MPs are focused more on re-election (understandably!), will they even have the time to devote to proper scrutiny of proposed laws? With the government’s legislation on the Rwanda deportation scheme, for example, which was expected to be first debated in Parliament on 12 December, as en went to press, it will suffer if it is not properly scrutinised by focused MPs.

In light of all this, my encouragement to you is to watch what is going on in Parliament closely. Amidst media speculation about the election, what a Starmer government would do, what the Tories will do to survive, and so on, we need to remember that for the time being laws are still being passed. Pray for your MP, especially if they are standing again. It is a privileged, but at times brutally demanding job. Pray that they will scrutinise legislation well and stand up for what is righteous.