UK Christianity in the 21st century

The new edition of Religious Trends (Christian Research) gives details of all the 275 denominations now constituting the Christian scene in the UK. It lists the number of members, churches and ministers for each of the years 2000, 2002-2006 with an estimate for 2010. The information was provided by each denomination, or estimated on their behalf. It also forecasts the overall figures ahead for 40 years to 2050. The basic figures are more interesting than they might look at first glance!

More buoyant: more people!

The figures published previously for 2005, revised in this new volume, were 5.6 million for the UK and 5.2 million for 2010. What has happened to cause these previous estimates to change so much? In a single word, immigration! We all know that thousands upon thousands of immigrants are coming to the UK at this time, the majority from the EU. Unlike other countries in the EU, the UK allowed citizens from Poland and other countries which joined in 2005 to be eligible for entrance to the UK immediately. Many of these immigrants came from Christian countries, both Protestant and Catholic, and have joined local churches wherever they have settled in the UK. More seem to have settled in England and Scotland than Wales and Northern Ireland.

The consequence is that the membership figures need to be revised upwards. The changes are seen especially in the Catholic, Orthodox, Presbyterian, Pentecostal and the Protestant Overseas Nationals churches — many of which are small but which collectively add up!

More in their Third Age

There is another feature which emerges from the 2005 English Church Census. As England accounts for almost two-thirds of church members, what happens in England is heavily reflected in the UK figures. The Census broke down those attending church who were 65 and over into three groups: those aged 65 to 74 (which the Government calls the ‘Third Age’), 75 to 84 and 85 and over. Previously these had just been counted as ‘65 and over’ and the average age of these older people was estimated from the general population figures.

The Census showed that the proportion of churchgoers 65 and over had increased from 25% in 1998 to 29% in 2005. This 29% was broken down in the proportions 59:34:7 respectively for those aged 65 to 74, 75 to 84 and 85 and over. Compared with the population proportions the church has more people aged 65-74 than might be expected but fewer 85 and over in attendance. As a consequence, the average age of churchgoers 65 and over becomes lower, meaning they are counted as staying in church for longer, and will thus increase the number of elderly attenders.

The ethnic factor

There is, however, a third and key positive factor which has emerged, especially in the last few years, which some people are calling the ‘noughties’. This is the growth of the many ethnic churches, especially the black churches in London. Although some of this growth, especially the non-black, is fuelled by immigration as described above, this is less true of the black churches. Some of these are being started by people coming especially from Ghana and Nigeria, in what they call ‘reverse mission’, that is, to start churches here in order to help bring back the UK to the Christianity from which they benefited a century or two ago. Some of these black churches are seeing spectacular growth and are now the largest churches in the country.

Before others get discouraged, it is important to point out that it is not just the black churches which are growing. The Census showed that 34% of churches in England grew between 1998 and 2005, a considerable improvement on the 21% which grew in the previous period. While some of that growth is due to transfers rather than conversions, some 150,000 people came to faith through Alpha and other similar courses between 1998 and 2005. Many churches are also experimenting in what have come to be called ‘Fresh Expressions’, of which there are some 5,000 examples in the Church of England alone. At least some, though almost certainly not all, of these people will be new to church attendance or membership, so their numbers are very likely to have a significant impact on overall numbers, especially in the years ahead.

So what?

The consequence of these various changes is that the rate of decline has slowed. The decline previously estimated to occur over the next 30 years has now stretched to 40 years. The result of more immigrants, continued church growth and continuing experimentation is changing the religious landscape for the better. Religious Trends No. 7 shows, therefore, that we continue to be Pulling out of the Nosedive as the 2005 Census book was called. There is no question of having pulled out of the nosedive — the numbers continue to decrease — but the rate of decline has lessened, and the same phenomenon can also be seen in the changing numbers of churches and ministers — both of these too are also declining less quickly than before.

The ageing of churchgoers

We may well not pull out of the nosedive unless we can solve one key issue. It may be true that we have more people in their Third Age than we thought previously. It is also true that the church has more people aged 65 and over as a whole than might be expected — 29% against 17% in the population. The consequence is that the average age of churchgoers rapidly increases. It was 47 for congregations in Great Britain in 2005, but is likely to be 67 by 2050 if present trends continue. That is simply disastrous, both for services, community activity, church fellowship and virtually everything that church stands for. It means that the key strategic priority which emerges from all this analysis is the crucial need to engage with young people and children now. That need was already known, but, with 33% of churchgoers under 30 in 2000, reducing to just 11% by 2025 and 3% by 2050 it sounds the death-knell of the church more effectively than just giving numbers of those still attending in 2050. We dare not wait till we wake up in 2025 and wonder where our youth work has got to; action to change future trends needs to begin in 2008!

Perhaps initiatives like Hope 08 by Youth For Christ, The Message and Soul Survivor (and with over 150 Christian organisations and thousands of churches signed up at the time of writing) can help the long process of enabling young people in this our land to hear and respond to the gospel of our Lord Jesus Christ. The need has never been greater! In effect, the numbers going to church in 2050 will be decided by what happens between now and 2018. It is the next ten years which are key.

This article was first printed in Christian Research’s March Quadrant, and is reprinted with permission.